Geopolitical Pause Sparks Rebound – Nasdaq Leads Green Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes bounced nicely early on, as traders took comfort that the U.S.-Iran situation didn’t escalate over the weekend.

Geopolitical tensions stayed in check, and with stocks looking oversold after recent weakness, dip-buyers jumped in to fuel a rebound.

Meta climbed more than 2% on a report (which the company called “speculative”) that it’s planning to lay off over 20% of its workforce.

Nvidia added more than 1% ahead of its GTC conference kicking off today. Those moves helped lift the broader market after the S&P 500 posted its third straight losing week and closed at its lowest level of the year on Friday.

Oil prices eased back after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

A Wall Street Journal report added to the relief, noting the U.S. will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships through the Strait.

President Trump had ordered strikes on Iranian military assets on Kharg Island Friday (avoiding oil infrastructure), but he warned further action could target those facilities if Iran keeps blocking the route.

By the close, the indexes locked in a winning session, with the Nasdaq leading the way. An early short squeeze fizzled, but a second one later in the day held up nicely.

Bond yields backed off recent highs (helping equities), the dollar gave back Friday’s gains, gold treaded water around $5,000, and Bitcoin extended its recent run, recapturing $74,000—its highest since early February.

Right now, the geopolitical crisis seems to be following its own roadmap, so today’s bounce leaves me wondering whether it’s the start of a real turnaround or just a one-day outlier.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/13/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (227 vs. 178 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 13, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

OIL WHIPSAWS, S&P BREAKS LOWER AS RATE‑CUT HOPES FADE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Oil’s recent spike finally ran out of steam today, with West Texas Intermediate hovering around 95 dollars and Brent holding near 100 after briefly closing above the triple‑digit mark for the first time since 2022.

Stocks were trying to find their footing after yesterday’s drop, when crude surged on comments from Iran’s new Supreme Leader that the Strait of Hormuz should stay shut as a pressure tactic in the ongoing conflict.

Today, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to calm nerves, saying the U.S. has been managing the shipping disruption and that “we don’t need to worry about it,” but traders aren’t fully convinced.

Higher oil prices, sticky inflation worries, and a string of weaker data have already pulled down expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, and the fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP revision to just 0.7% growth from 1.4% only reinforced the sense that the economy is slogging along under that weight.

By midday, oil had flipped the script again: WTI reversed early losses and closed higher, yanking what was left of the day’s positive tone out of the equity market as confidence in anyone’s oil-price forecasts basically evaporated.

The S&P 500 broke down out of its recent trading range, and the Mag 7 cohort, which had looked like a relative safe haven for most of the week, finally gave way and slid alongside the other 493 names.

Bond yields offered no relief, surging sharply over the past two weeks as rate‑cut odds were slashed, helping keep the dollar in rally mode over the last three sessions.

Gold has been swimming against that current but so far is holding the key $5,000 level, while Bitcoin pushed to new post‑war highs, briefly testing $74,000 before easing back.

Stepping back, equities are actually holding up better than you might expect given war headlines, a choppy economy, and wild action in oil.

The prevailing view on Wall Street seems to be that the oil shock is more of a temporary flare‑up than a permanent regime change: yes, it likely keeps inflation hotter in the near term and pushes out the timing of Fed cuts, but those cuts are still “later, not never” in most forecasts.

The real question is whether that patience will hold if oil stays elevated, and growth keeps cooling—or if markets finally lose their nerve and start pricing a tougher path ahead.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/12/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 12, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.08% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Macro Data Solid – But Geopolitics Overpowers Everything

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened under pressure and stayed there for most of the day, as oil prices kept surging on supply disruption fears from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 9% to around $95 a barrel, while Brent climbed 8% to roughly $100.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (appointed March 9) doubled down, saying the Strait of Hormuz should stay closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that the U.S. Navy isn’t ready yet to escort tankers through the Strait but should be by month’s end. Overnight, three more foreign vessels were hit in the Persian Gulf—traffic there is basically at a standstill.

That oil spike fueled inflation worries and kept risk-off sentiment in charge. The S&P 500 and Dow closed sharply lower, with the Nasdaq also in the red. Small Caps were the day’s biggest loser (no short squeeze help), and the Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P.

On the macro side, things were actually upbeat: January trade deficit narrowed, housing starts rose 7.2% (beating expectations), initial jobless claims edged down, and GDP tracking now sits at 3.3% annualized. But the oil and war headlines drowned it all out.

Bond yields rose across the board (rate-cut expectations collapsed), the dollar rallied for the second day in a row, gold broke back below $5,100, and Bitcoin stayed coiled in a tight range around $70,000—breakout coming, but direction unclear.

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CPI In Line, Yields Rise – Mag 7 Holds Up, Metals Slide

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower as traders kept one eye on the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and oil prices, which spiked early on worries about supply disruptions.

The Dow was the biggest laggard, but the broader market got a lift later when the International Energy Agency announced it would release 400 million barrels from its reserves—the largest-ever drawdown—to help offset the war-related supply squeeze.

Overnight reports added to the tension: U.S. forces reportedly sank several Iranian ships (including 16 minelayers) near the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran had been trying to mine the route.

But President Trump had said earlier this week that the war would end “very soon,” which reinforced hopes for a quick de-escalation and helped calm nerves.

The February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, following recent signs of a softening labor market. That gave the Fed a little breathing room but didn’t spark any fireworks.

Oracle was the day’s standout, jumping 10% after beating Q3 earnings and revenue and raising its fiscal 2027 forecast.

The Mag 7 managed to outperform the rest of the S&P 493 despite some afternoon fading, while an early short squeeze in small caps lost steam.

Bond yields rose sharply (taking some wind out of equities), the dollar gained, gold lost its $5,200 handle again, and Bitcoin dipped mid-session but rallied briefly above $71K before settling with a small gain.

As we’ve seen all week, this market can swing violently in both directions on headline ping-pong—today was no exception.

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