Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (259 vs. 265 current).
GOLD NEARS RECORD, SILVER SOARS 10%, AND THE BULL RUN ROLLS ON
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
Stocks kicked off the day on a strong note after the latest jobs report, with the Dow and S&P 500 both climbing into record territory before settling back a bit.
The December employment data was a mixed bag—it showed payrolls rising by 50,000, slightly below expectations for 73,000, but still signaling that the U.S. economy is moving forward, even if slowly.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%, surprising economists who had forecast 4.5%, which traders took as a hint that the labor market has enough resilience to support growth without overheating.
Still, given the numbers’ ambiguity, the report didn’t really clear things up for the Fed—it’s strong enough to keep policymakers cautious for now but soft enough to leave the door open to further cuts later if conditions weaken.
Adding to the mix, the Supreme Court delayed its ruling on the legality of President Trump’s broad tariffs, leaving trade policy uncertainty lingering in the background. That decision could have far-reaching fiscal and market implications once it lands.
For the week, all the major indexes finished higher, led by small caps, which surged 5% thanks to a hefty short squeeze.
The “Mag 7” lagged again, as the rest of the S&P 500’s 493 stocks picked up the slack.
Meanwhile, bond yields were mixed, and the dollar had a solid week—but that didn’t stop gold from charging back toward record highs. Silver stole the spotlight, soaring 10% and outpacing everything in sight, with platinum not far behind.
Copper added a respectable 3.7%, while Bitcoin ended the week roughly flat after losing steam midweek.
With small caps ripping, metals on fire, and Bitcoin holding its ground, the setup heading into mid-January looks strong—but will the market’s broad energy and hard‑asset momentum be enough to keep the bull party going?
ETF Data updated through Thursday, January 8, 2026
How to use this StatSheet:
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
The Dow started strong, but the Nasdaq felt the heat as traders kept rotating out of tech. Big AI names took hits: Nvidia down over 1%, Apple on track for its seventh straight loss, and Oracle off more than 2%.
The bright spot? Defense stocks went gangbusters after President Trump floated a massive $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027 (up huge from 2026’s $901 billion). Northrop Grumman soared 10%+, Lockheed Martin jumped 8%—classic sector rotation in action.
Small caps loved it too—the Russell 2000 climbed 0.8% and hit a new all-time high in the morning (first since mid-December).
By the close, it was a mixed bag: S&P 500 finished basically flat, advancers crushed decliners, but mega-cap tech lagged hard.
Bond yields rose (helping the dollar), gold bounced late, but most metals faded. Bitcoin dipped below $90K but found support and closed only slightly lower.
Nerves are building for tomorrow’s big payroll report and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
One quieter thing flying under the radar: the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starts, stretching over the next five trading days.
That means forced selling in winners like silver (to reset weights) and buying in laggards—could spark some short-term swings and downside pressure on the hot commodities.
It’s all derivative-based, so temporary, but worth noting. Once it’s done, I expect silver’s structural shortages to kick the bull trend back into gear.
The S&P 500 and Dow kicked things off by flashing fresh all-time intraday highs—building on their hot start to 2026—but the early excitement faded. Both slipped into the red by the close as the rally ran out of gas.
Crude oil took a hit after President Trump mentioned interim Venezuelan authorities could hand over up to 50 million barrels to the U.S., sparking worries about extra supply flooding the market.
Maduro’s arrest is big geopolitically, but it doesn’t change oil flows right now—so markets mostly shrugged. That said, if things get messy with cooperation, elections, or unrest, it could stir up fresh chaos and weigh on stocks.
Economic data was mixed: service-sector activity hit its best level of the year (strong orders and hiring), but job openings plunged in November, with hiring and layoffs both cooling.
In the end, equities finished lower, with only the Nasdaq squeezing out a tiny gain. Bond yields eased, gold and silver dipped but bounced off session lows, and copper plus Bitcoin took a breather too.
With even the metals and crypto joining stocks on the downside after their monster runs, does this feel like a normal, healthy pullback to reset before Friday’s big jobs report… or a little caution flag worth watching ahead of potential swings?
The Dow kicked things off strong, building on yesterday’s record close after the Venezuela news (U.S. capture of Maduro and Trump pushing U.S. oil companies to invest big).
Early gains held pretty well, with energy names like Chevron (up ~4%) leading the charge on hopes of rebuilding Venezuela’s massive oil infrastructure.
The other majors followed the upbeat mood and kept momentum going, though the Mag 7 (including Nvidia +1% early) started hot but faded late, letting the S&P 493 take the win again. A huge short squeeze kept small caps flying (up big over two days).
Traders are eyeing this week’s data (ADP payrolls Wednesday, full jobs report Friday) for more clues on the Fed’s path.
The standout? Metals kept their 2026 hot streak alive—silver +6.6% to top $80 (new highs), gold aiming for $4,500, platinum and copper strong too. Bond yields higher, dollar modest comeback, Bitcoin around mid-$90K range.
When stocks keep grinding higher but silver’s the one smashing records left and right, does it feel like the ultimate risk-on harmony… or a gentle nudge that our hard-asset tilt is still doing the heavy lifting?
